THREE MARTINI LUNCH: AUGUST 4, 2014

Jim and Greg discuss polls showing more Americans want the GOP in control of Congress, utility companies that raise rates even as demand shrinks, and the Obama administration's odd program to foment rebellion in Cuba.



This Just Handed to Me: The Conventional Wisdom on the Senate Midterms Has Not Changed

There's not a ton to disagree with in this new assessment from Nate Silver - "Republicans Remain Slightly Favored To Take Control Of The Senate" - but I'm left scratching my head at his suggestion that the GOP's Jim Oberweis is more likely to defeat Sen. Dick Durbin in Illinois than Ed Gillespie is to beat Sen. Mark Warner in Virginia. Really? Really?

Much to the frustration of the chattering class, the outlook for the Senate races hasn't changed much during the summer. Republicans need six seats to win the Senate. (Yes, Sen. Angus King, independent of Maine, has said he will flip to the majority if the GOP takes over, but he won’t flip to the GOP for a 50-50 split.)

Republicans enjoy three near-automatic pick-ups of Democrat-held seats, in South Dakota, West Virginia, and in Montana, where incumbent Sen. John Walsh, dealing with a plagiarism scandal, is being urged to drop his reelection bid and/or resign from the U.S. Senate. Then there are three southern Senate Democrat incumbents who look vulnerable, but not quite toast yet: Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, Mark Pryor of Arkansas and Kay Hagan of North Carolina. Bill Cassidy, Tom Cotton and Thom Tillis all just need their home states to follow their GOP instincts...

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Kicking Off the Kentucky Senate Race With a Rowdy Picnic

The race to sound like Republicans is on for Colorado Democrats