THREE MARTINI LUNCH: OCTOBER 2, 2014

National Review's Jim Geraghty joins guest host Brett Winterble. Today's topics: Favorable polling for Republicans in the midterm elections, still no travel restrictions in the face of Ebola, and Nancy Pelosi's irrational optimism about the midterms.



Marquette poll: Walker now leads outside the margin of error, tops 50 percent support

Two weeks ago, Scott Walker edged back in front of Democrat Mary Burke by three points - within the respected MU law poll's margin of error. Welcome to October:

New Marquette Law School Poll finds Walker at 50% and Burke at 45% among likely voters in governor’s race. #mulawpoll
— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) October 1, 2014

Change is modest from last poll, Franklin says, but first time since March that the lead is greater than margin of error. #mulawpoll
— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) October 1, 2014

In the likely voter crosstabs, Walker's lead is actually closer to six points, at 50.5 vs. 44.7 percent (Walker +5.8). Although Republicans' enthusiasm advantage has receded slightly since the last poll in this series, Walker's margin is boosted by dominance among men (62/38 - he trails female likely voters by 14 points), and a double-digit lead with independents:

Among independents, Walker has 53%, Burke 40%. That's a shift in Walker's favor, Franklin says. #mulawpoll
— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) October 1, 2014

The governor is ahead among voters who don't live in Milwaukee or Madison and leads with middle class voters. In a victory for 'vote-suppressing extremists' or whatever, Wisconsin voters back the state's new voter ID law by a narrow 30-point margin.  Walker recently rolled out another "controversial" plan for his second term: Drug testing working-age recipients of state benefits.  Democrats have furiously slammed the idea as "blaming the poor," evidently unaware that most people disagree with them:

56% favor drug testing for recipients of unemployment benefits and food stamps, 41% oppose. #mulawpoll
— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) October 1, 2014

By a double-digit margin, Wisconsinites say the state's budget is in better shape than it was before Walker's successful reforms (a sizable minority says 'no difference'), and a healthy majority say the Badger State is on the right track (54/43). Walker's job approval and personal favorability ratings are running even; Burke's favorables are tied as well, but 26 percent of respondents said they didn't know enough to weigh in.  But those are the overall numbers; among likely voters, the governor fares noticeably better (+4.5 job approval, +6 favorability, with Burke -4 on favorability).  Walker continues to win high marks for effective leadership...

Also read:

6 Ways the Feds Screwed Up the Ebola Response

Tillis Calls for Travel Ban on Ebola Countries