CHARLIE CRIST'S EARLY LEAD HAS EVAPORATED

Scott gains 10 points on Crist

PPP's newest look at the Florida Governor's race finds that it has tightened considerably over the last three months. What was a 12 point lead for Charlie Crist over incumbent Rick Scott in September at 50/38 is now just a 2 point advantage at 43/41.

The movement since the fall has come largely as a result of Republican voters rallying around Scott and continuing to decline in their affection for Crist. Scott now leads by 66 points with the GOP base at 80/14, compared to only a 44 point advantage on previous poll at 65/21. That shift with Republicans accounts for almost the entire 10 point movement in Scott's direction over the last few months.

It's not that Scott is becoming any more popular. His 34/51 approval spread is only slightly improved from 33/55 on our last poll, and it still puts him among the 6 most unpopular Governors in the country in our polling. But Crist's favorability numbers are really declining. In September he was on narrowly positive ground at 43/42, now he's dropped a net 11 points to 36/46. He's doing a good deal worse with both Republicans and independents than we've found in past polling.

Things were bound to start looking up for Scott because Florida is an evenly divided battleground state where close elections are routine.  There was never a chance that a creep like Charlie Crist was going to run away with it.  An improving local economy is helping, as it always does for incumbents.  

Scott and the Florida GOP have also spent money on paid TV ads bashing Crist, a notorious RINO turncoat, as an "opportunist."  Also, the campaign and party have shifted focus and tied Crist closer to Obamacare, which likely helps drive voters farther away from Crist.

Another key factor in the rapid improvement for Scott is that there is no GOP in-fighting this time around.  Jeb Bush, who backed Scott's primary opponent in 2010, endorsed Scott for reelection in November:

Former Republican Gov. Jeb Bush endorsed Rick Scott for his second gubernatorial term Tuesday, saying he campaigned to get Florida's economy back on track and "delivered on that promise."

The endorsement is the latest signal Florida's GOP establishment -- which Scott bucked during his upstart 2010 campaign -- is now rallying around his re-election, Tallahassee.com reported.

"Rick Scott demonstrated leadership when Florida needed it most," Bush said.

"While President Obama and Democrats in Congress are fixated on penalizing success, Governor Scott is pursuing policies to restore prosperity for more Floridians while prioritizing core state responsibilities, including increasing the state's investment in education."

I'm not one of those who think Jeb Bush should jump into the 2016 presidential race.  I have no doubt that if he did, he would follow in the footsteps of McCain and Romney.  Having said that, however, his endorsement is very helpful and has facilitated a greater unity among Florida's GOP.

It's not the topline that's important, but the trend. Right now, the trend is toward Scott.