Did Obama just provide the opening for a border-security bill?
It might take a little political jujitsu to pull it off, but Barack Obama may have inadvertently opened the door for Republicans to move forward in their incremental approach to immigration reform. Until now, Obama and his fellow Democrats have argued that the humanitarian aspects of the current illegal immigrants in the U.S. demanded a comprehensive solution rather than a deliberative and sequential strategy that could make sure that one piece worked before adding another to the mix. Republicans are pushing back hard on Obama's declaration of executive amnesty last night, but it might have removed the argument for a comprehensive plan — especially if it produces the kind of results that Marc Ambinder predicted yesterday:
It will make America more of a magnet for undocumented immigrants. Come to America, find a job that Americans don't want to do, live in the shadows for a while, and wait for political pressure to boil over, forcing the president at the time to grant you some form of documented status. In 1986, President Reagan granted a form of amnesty for immigrants who came to the country before 1982. He actually used the word "amnesty." Reagan. A big difference: Congress agreed with him. But it continues a precedent that is hard to explain away to those who are struggling to escape poverty, crime, and desolation elsewhere.
"Illegal" immigration will probably increase in the near-term. It has, every time any form of amnesty has become law. Why? Politics and money, as Brad Plumer explains here. Congress did not fund border enforcement as well as they should have in 1986, and many of the employment provisions, which were designed to reduce the magnetic lure of the job market, were watered down to please various constituencies. Executive discretion dealing only with status issues will create unforeseen complications for employers today.In other words, Obama's announcement last night will not only do little to solve the actual problems with illegal immigration, it will clearly make them worse. Rather than ensuring a rational process for dealing with the current population of "undocumented workers," this declaration and its inevitable consequences will make sorting people out later during any normalization process more difficult. It's exactly the same dynamic that occurred in 1986, except that Congress created it through law rather than a President doing so through an edict.
Thanks to Obama jumping the gun and supposedly addressing the humanitarian concerns of those already here, Republicans have the opening to argue that the serial approach is now the best way to solve the problem. That is what I meant by political jujitsu. In jujitsu, one does not confront an opponent's strength head on, but uses it against him. Obama clearly wanted to make himself look like the compassionate actor in this debate, and Republicans the heartless, cruel nativists. Instead of trying to fight that battle, make Obama own it and bypass it for the real battle the GOP wants to win on border security. Make Democrats vote against a border security bill, and make Obama veto one while his own amnesty remains in place.
How many Senate Democrats would be willing to sustain that veto before the 2016 election? I'm betting not too many. But Republicans have a perfect opportunity to turn the debate in that direction now and force Obama and his shrinking number of allies on Capitol Hill to go on the record...Also read:
Boehner to Obama: You're damaging the presidency
Legal but Still Poor: The Economic Consequences of Amnesty
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