THE NARRATIVE AND POLITICAL CORRECTNESS


Threats to freedom of speech, writing and action, though often trivial in isolation, are cumulative in their effect and, unless checked, lead to a general disrespect for the rights of the citizen. -George Orwell

Tuesday, April 28, 2015

POLL: WALKER 23%, RUBIO 13%, BUSH 12% IN IOWA

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From PPP's latest Iowa poll:
PPP's newest Iowa poll finds Scott Walker well ahead of the rest of the Republican field in Iowa, getting 23% to 13% for Marco Rubio, 12% for Jeb Bush, 10% each for Mike Huckabee and Rand Paul, 8% for Ted Cruz, 7% for Ben Carson, 5% for Chris Christie, and 4% for Rick Perry.
Walker has the highest favorability out of anyone in the field, with 59% of voters viewing him favorably to 13% who have an unfavorable view. The key to Walker's success is that he's winning both among voters who are most concerned about electability in the general election and among voters who are most concerned with having the most conservative candidate.
Among voters who say being able to win in the general is their top priority, Walker gets 21% to edge out Marco Rubio (20%) and Jeb Bush (17%). His lead is much more emphatic among voters saying conservatism is their top priority- with them he gets 29% to 14% for Cruz, 12% for Paul, and 10% for Huckabee.
Bush's third place finish is because he really continues to struggle with conservative voters in the key early states. Overall he only has a 38/37 favorability rating, and that's because with those identifying themselves as 'very conservative' he comes in at 30/45. He only polls at 2% as the first choice for the nomination with that group, putting him in last place.
A couple of other highlights of interest:
Ted Cruz's 8% standing suggests that whatever bump he might have gotten following his official candidacy announcement has already worn off. We were finding him in double digits in most of the polls we conducted across the country before Rubio and Paul joined the field as well. Cruz was at 15% when we last polled Iowa in May so if anything he might be losing steam.
Chris Christie continues to be very unpopular with GOP voters - only 28% have a favorable opinion of him to 50% with a negative one, making him by far and away the most unpopular candidate in the state.
What's the secret to Walker's success? Simple: He's the guy whom every faction within the party can happily tolerate. He may not be everybody's initial first choice but he seems to be everybody's second choice. In other words he is the candidate who can unite the party when the time comes. That's powerful stuff, facilitated in large part by the fact that he is battled-tested and a proven winner, even in less-that-optimal situations.

Most candidates see their support swing, sometimes wildly, between self-identified TEA partiers, opponents, and neutrals, but Walker's putting up winning, consistent numbers across all three groups. He beats Ted Cruz, 25-18%, among TEA partiers, Jeb Bush, 22-16%, among Establishment types and Rand Paul, 24-15%, among those who are neutral.

The most satisfying part of the data, to me anyway, is the fact that Walker also wins among younger Republicans (18-45 years old). Many people assume that Paul or maybe Rubio would win that category but this data shatters that assumption. Among voters 45 and younger, Walker gets 26% while Paul gets 19% and Rubio, shockingly, gets only 4%. Meanwhile, Walker wins the 46-65 and 65 and older groups as well.

Walker has also been polling well in New Hampshire. He has also been well-received in South Carolina. There seems little doubt that among all the contenders, Walker is the only one who has a legitimate shot at winning the first three contests. That's a very pleasant thought!

Also read: Three reasons Iowa Republicans love Scott Walker right now


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