MAYBE EARLY POLLS ARE TELLING US SOMETHING

Byron York shares some insight on the value of early polling in a presidential election cycle:

It's a commonplace to say the 2016 Republican presidential race is at such an early stage that polls are of no value. But they reflect the state of the race today - not on election day, but today - and that alone has some value. And they might at least suggest where things will be 10 months from now.

Look at the last election cycle. The top three GOP candidates in the RealClearPolitics average of polls in late March 2011 - Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, and Ron Paul - were the top three men in the poll average at the beginning of 2012, when caucus and primary voting got under way. And they were the last three men standing, sort of, in the same order, in the last RCP average in April 2012.

Of course there were a huge number of twists and turns along the way. But in retrospect, the polls in 2011 told us something. The winner came from the top three a year earlier.

Today, the RCP average shows an exact tie at the top of the GOP race: Jeb Bush and Scott Walker, both with 16.6 percent, with Ben Carson following at 10.6 percent. Of course Carson is widely viewed in the Republican establishment as having no chance, and there are others outside the top three, like Marco Rubio, who are seen as real contenders.

But with Bush and Walker the other two of the top three, would anyone bet a lot of money that the ultimate winner won't come from the top group once again? Sometimes it makes sense to look at early polls.

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